Prepare for another downturn

RandyB1986 Said: CIAK,....... Sorry to hijack your post....but if it wasnt for insurance work, I would be hurting bad. Thank God for hail and insurance companies!

So...... they took the food off your table and now you are ever so thankful they dropped a few crumbs on the floor? Don't let me be too rude, but get down their and lick them up.

Sorry that sounded harsh Randy. I was in the middle of writing a letter thanking Barack Hussein Dubya Bush for giving the banksters $trillions when I got my self-flagellation wires crossed.

Chuck, you wanted a conversation.....

Anyway the price of roofing will drop and the cost of your premium will go up.

What's not to like?

This country does not want dual flush toilets or durable roofs. Our decline is inevitable.

:dry:

It is a noble endeavor to maintain a model that allows some to work as a craft . For others who don't have the luxury anymore to keep food on their tables and money enough in their coffers to pay the bills . Fraternity clicks associations for me break down when and if I could not pay my bills and keep food on the table . Nice platitudes though . If you are making the money you need great for you . Most I would guess are not. It would be nice to subscribe to nice Platitudes . The rubber meets the road When the repo man comes to pull you trucks off the lot and the bank is foreclosing on the house and shop your wife and family are suffering. Sorry boys, I understand Tom and others don't trust my intentions . It doesn't bother me I'm speaking the truth here . I have no dog in this fight . I am comfortable and live well .

Stephen, thank you for the compliment. I enjoy your posts as well. We all reap huge rewards from this fraternity.

Tom ("Cynicism? I thought I was just being observant") I understand. Been there many times. The current usage of the word generally means distrust of the integrity or professed motives of others and leaves us with a resident negativity (which I also understand) but the root of the word is where I prefer to see it go: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cynicism

I have to apologize for my earlier post insofar as I realize upon rereading that it sounds more than a bit self-serving. You are right about our obligations to the employee. My way usually generates serious employment for one or two others and I treat it as an obligation. There is part-time opportunity for another variable number. Gerry (GAK) takes it to the next level by finding and paying what the pundits call "your replacement" and from there you try to get to where MikeH is. I still feel the key is "cultural" and if you can maintain the right kind of culture you can turn a big part of the world into what others might call a niche. You know all that of course.

That doesn't really speak to your complaint. It goes without saying that knowing what's in Exactimate would be helpful. Knowledge is its own reward half the time. Establishing working relationships is always helpful even if its with people you would rather not deal with. If the opportunities gravitate towards one end of the spectrum or another, it behooves us to re-position near them, but when a broad industry is controlled by a handful of companies and the prices are controlled by arbitrary means, you're ripe for anti-trust litigation. That and what you listed. The whole thing is exacerbated when individuals become more dependent on big brother because they've run out of their own money and credit.

CHUCK to take your scenario to a possible conclusion:

Let us say it is the year 2020. Every town in America has been re-roofed by "StormChasers, Inc. a Shadow Subsidiary of The AllStateFarmUSGovernment Insurance, Inc., LLC .gov/biz"

There are now 400,000 unemployed Legal roofers and 4 million illegal. All are out of work except for the 1 million illegal ones that work for "StormChasers, Inc." for $8 per sq, off & on. 1009'd employees of course Then in April 2020 a hailstorm hits Denver, Co (again) A rather small storm as it only does $100 mil in damages. Maybe one weeks work for "StormChaser, Inc."

Suddenly 4,400,000 unemployed starving roofers, their families and a few thousand wanna bes converge on the city for some work, or some food. Willing to work for $4 per sq. Off/on no bennies. (twill will work for food BTW)

What to expect? Protests? Riots? National Guard? Private Security Forces? Haymarket Square again?

OK Now I've got it: David Byrne - Talking Heads: How can we know where we're going? If we don't know where we've been? (Road to NoWhere)

Anyway, Tim Adams wrote about Wal-Mart Roofing a few years back on here. While I did not disagree, I had no idea it would get here and affect us all so soon.

egg Said: ... there is no way a SOBER person would even insure this junk we call affordable (plastic & asphalt) housing in America...

Wow, Tom, I know youre packing around a fair measure of cynicism which is understandable, and I know we can still find quality if we are willing to look beyond the endless tract work that has been slammed up in the last thirty years (or more) but that sounds pretty much right on. We are what we eat. Anyone care for another towering goblet of corn oil? Its in everything. A wooden spoon and a tin cup just might be one of the last remaining ways to righteousness. Im saving that one for later though.

Cynicism? I thought I was just being observant :S

The business model of great service good job is the model I'm advocating . Win Win The market place other than some of the niche markets are being taken over by Stormers and locals that understand how to work it . Agreed there are some companies that are in it for the money all else be damned . I can't see this model working well . Competitors have learned how to manipulate the storms make money on them and pick up referrals and more work using it. It works well with small one or two man operations if you can't handle volume it's their. A lot of volume is also there . If you want to grow and be successful this is the market place . I have been approached by a couple of individuals who want to form LLC jump into the fray . I have seen some of the numbers 20 million a year was the largest . Not bad for a company just 2 years old and looking to expand in this economy. Deep pockets are also part of the mix. Next time a storm comes through watch how fast the work is wiped out from your market and referrals drop like a stone if your not involved . IMO

I'm w/ ya EGG. The curveball is the employees. Once you hire them and make the commitment to them, they expect, and one should expect, to provide a certain level of employment to them. It is not only about me. :)

Very well said, Egg-VERY well said.

I could have written something similar myself- but I wouldn't have written it so well.

Best wishes, all

Stephen

"More of a bad thing is...... more of a bad thing."

You must be hoping Killian Russell will come back and restart his quote of the day thing. lol I'm just thankful I'm still in good enough health to wear tool bags because none of my competitors can field a foreman who brings anything near what I bring to the point of contact at the job. Some of them do fairly well and it's not their fault. There is no fault. They just can't offer that asset. I ask myself what I would want a crew working on my house to act like, be like, and what kind of job and experience I would want from it and give my clients that. Can't happen if I'm not there. This limits the number of jobs that can be done in a year and consequently the amount of income that can be generated, but it means I can keep quality in my/their lives every inch of the way. It's making the business a way of life. My life, my business. My choice. Their gain. They pay more sometimes, but they also get more every time. The minute you expand you have to offer a different service. Good maybe, but different. I don't do insurance work but with no hailstorms and hurricanes to dominate the industry, it doesn't matter here. Keeping a positive outlook and just being honest and real is where the good life starts anyway, no matter how much you make or don't make. That and plenty of corn oil, right?

EGG, just seems to me we can do better than this and most of us realize it I think. I don't pretend to have an answer. But I have recognized the problem. The country that put a man on the moon and whose economy WAS the envy of the world, cannot be burdened w / a residential roofing solution

More of a bad thing is...... more of a bad thing.

"... there is no way a SOBER person would even insure this junk we call "affordable" (plastic & asphalt) housing in America..."

Wow, Tom, I know you're packing around a fair measure of cynicism which is understandable, and I know we can still find quality if we are willing to look beyond the endless tract work that has been slammed up in the last thirty years (or more) but that sounds pretty much right on. We are what we eat. Anyone care for another towering goblet of corn oil? It's in everything. A wooden spoon and a tin cup just might be one of the last remaining ways to righteousness. I'm saving that one for later though.

Randy That is what I was addressing earlier . Sometime you have to train adjusters. If he won't return your calls . Leave a message with him that you are letting the home office aware of it and ask the HO to file a supplement for the difference . Insurance company's do not like supplements . Xactimate is a better program than MSB IMO I'll address some of the other issues that have been raised later on . Many good post I look forward to debating . By the way Tom ,well you got me there , ok "Free" is a four letter word, but only because of a linguistic accident, nothing more.http://news.cnet.com/8301-13505_3-10288196-16.html This article speaks to the issue .

MN you make some excellent points. CHUCK you see, likes to come in here and upset the apple cart. You know get us to change our thinking, or in reality just stop thinking, be stupid and accept things like:

There is such a thing as "free" "free" is not a four letter word Who says you can't have it all? Buy one get one "free" The government is your friend and is here to help you

CHUCK accepts the world of B.S. marketing, housing bubble and E-Z credit. ANOTHER downturn CHUCK? LOL In the world you promote it is the wheel that is constantly turning.

The endgame is very obvious as MN pointed out. Ins. COs. are like the drug dealers, the 1st few lines are "free" (there 's that word again) MN is already paying $600-1,000 per yr. more for all of those "free" roofs. If there was not an underlying Scheme here (rate increases), there is no way a SOBER person would even insure this junk we call "affordable" (plastic & asphalt) housing in America

I was talking w/ a friend the other day and he said how wacky things have gotten in the last 10 yrs. I said "Can you picture how bad things are going to be in 2020?"

I just hope I can get 15 yrs out of this. I doubt it, but maybe my kids can get an "education" from one of these collge fear factories and be able to make a career of running other people's lives---- the only jobs that seem to matter to big brother.