Deflation fears

Some of the products we use have seen modest increases this year, but some things have fallen so far, so fast, that it's scary.

Acrylic coating............................. down 25% from a job quoted last October Steel deck, type B....................... JUST QUOTED AT $55 AND 52 PER SQUARE DEPENDING QUANTITY. We were paying almost $150/square for it not all that long ago.

What other price swings are you guys starting to see? It seems to me that everyone is looking for an order, no matter how bad the price may hurt.>>>

Mike, and all. it is hard to think of an industry that does not have over capacity. Over capacity is what drove the carmakers, for example, to offer so many great deals, for years, until it finally broke them. In fact won't saving Chrysler be an act of promoting deflation by maintaining excessive capacity?

As much as many people don't like it, these new technologies that the President promotes, are a way to break the mold of too many companies doing the same thing.

We have reached a high level of efficiency/ slash automation. Heck think of nail guns and Roofers Buggies. We have high customer service in many sectors ( not all). I mean you can call about most anything today and have it tommorrow. Not true w/ phone service, cable TV, etc etc. But that is why the big boys are getting hit harder in this recession---- They are the ones that truly need a kick in the shorts.

What's lacking and still in short supply in much of Corporate America? Quality & customer service>>>

Thanks Miscreant. Excellent, concise description, and one that I would have struggled with.

That 66% drop in steel deck is what really concerns me. Yes, I think that prices in the $150's were over inflated due to the cost of energy and we should have seen a corresponding drop to the price of oil, but 10 years ago we were paying $80 something a square for steel deck, if memory serves me well. A price in the 50's is terrifyingly indicative of the world market condition. I know that a friend in the scrap business has told me that for the first time his history, a major steel company in our area has stopped buying scrap. I was in one of that same Co.'s plants two weeks ago and it looked like a ghost town.

We have a long way to go to pull out of this thing.>>>

Nothing going down on the shingle material front.

But the price of a shingle roofing job seems to be dropping faster than the materials Mike mentioned :angry:>>>

Mike, The acrylic being down may be due to the winter only just having finished, making coating a more viable job now, and the metal decking, probably because no-one is building right now.>>>

Deflation can cause a depression or severe recession. The problem with deflation is that no monetary policy can be used to soften it's blow. Inflation is caused by too many dollars after too few goods, deflation is not enough dollars after too many goods. In deflation currency and the value of goods and services goes down.In a nut shell if that happens we are screwed.>>>